Climate Econometrics Publications
 | Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Macroeconomic Forecasting Castle, J.L., Hendry, DF. and Miller, J.I. (2024), "Econometric forecasting of climate change", in M.P. Clements and A.B. Galvão (eds), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Macroeconomic Forecasting, pg 361-395. Available online here |
 | Spatial-temporal dynamics of structural unemployment in declining coal mining regions and potentialities of the 'just transition' Mark, E., Rafaty, R. & Schwarz, M. (2024) "Spatial-temporal dynamics of structural unemployment in declining coal mining regions and potentialities of the 'just transition'", Energy Policy. Available online here |
 | Climate policies that achieved major emission reductions: Global evidence from two decades Stechmesser, A., Koch, N., Mark, E., Dilger, E., Klosel, P., Menicacci, L., Nachtigall, D., Pretis, F., Ritter, N., Schwarz, M., Vossen, H. & Wenzel, A. (2024) "Climate policies that achieved major emission reductions: Global evidence from two decades" Science. Available online here |
 | A Review of the Bernanke Report on Economic Forecasting at the Bank of England 42--46 in Aikman and R. Barwell (Eds) The Bernanke Review: Responses from Bank of England Watchers, D.F. Hendry and J.N.J. Muellbauer. Available online here |
 | Can the UK achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050? Castle, J.L. & Hendry, D.F. (2024) "Can the UK achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050?" National Institute Economic Review. Available online here |
 | Forecasting the UK top 1% income share in a shifting world Castle, J.L., Doornik, J.A. & Hendry, D.F. (2024) "Forecasting the UK top 1% income share in a shifting world" Economica. Available online here |
 | What a puzzle! Unravelling why UK Phillips Curves were unstable Castle, J.L. & Hendry, D.F. (2024) "What a puzzle! Unravelling why UK Phillips Curves were unstable", Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. Available online here |
 | Five sensitive intervention points to achieve climate neutrality by 2050, illustrated by the UK Castle, J.L. & Hendry, D.F. (2024) "Five sensitive intervention points to achieve climate neutrality by 2050, illustrated by the UK" Renewable Energy. Available online here |
 | Testing for coefficient distortion due to outliers with an application to the economic impacts of climate change Jiao, X, Pretis, F. & Schwarz, M. (2024) 'Testing for coefficient distortion due to outliers with an application to the economic impacts of climate change', Journal of Econometrics. Available online here |
 | What a puzzle! Unravelling the instabilities in UK Phillips curves Castle, J.L. and Hendry, D.F. (2023) 'What a puzzle! Unravelling the instabilities in UK Phillips curves', VoxEU. Available online here |
 | The historical role of energy in UK inflation and productivity with implications for price inflation Castle, J.L., Hendry, D.F. & Martinez, A.B. (2023) 'The historical role of energy in UK inflation and productivity with implications for price inflation', Energy Economics. Available online here |
 | Systemic risk and compound vulnerability impact pathways of food insecurity in Somalia Thalheimer, L., Gaupp, F. & Webersik, C. (2023) 'Systemic risk and compound vulnerability impact pathways of food insecurity in Somalia', Climate Risk Management. Available online here |
 | A brief history of general-to-specific modelling Hendry, D.F. (2023) 'A brief history of general-to-specific modelling' Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. Available online here |
 | Improving models and forecasts after equilibrium-mean shifts Castle, J.L., Doornik, J.A. & Hendry, D.F. (2023) 'Improving models and forecasts after equilibrium-mean shifts', International Journal of Forecasting. Available online here |
 | Does protest influence political speech? Evidence from UK climate protest, 2017-2019 Barrie, C., Fleming, T.G. & Rowan, S.S. (2023) 'Does protest influence political speech? Evidence from UK climate protest, 2017-2019', British Journal of Political Science. Available online here |
 | An empirical estimate for the snow albedo feedback effect Kaufmann, R.K. and Pretis, F. (2023) 'An empirical estimate for the snow albedo feedback effect', Climatic Change, 176. Available online here |
 | Why can economic forecasts go wrong? Castle, J.L. & Hendry, D.F. (2023) 'Why can economic forecasts go wrong?', Economics Observatory. Available online here |
| Common volatility shocks driven by the global carbon transition Campos-Martins, S. & Hendry, D.F. (2023) 'Common volatility shocks driven by the global carbon transition', Journal of Econometrics. Available online here |
 | Large weather and conflict effects on internal displacement in Somalia with little evidence of feedback onto conflict Thalheimer, L., Schwarz, M.P. and Pretis, F. (2023) 'Large weather and conflict effects on internal displacement in Somalia with little evidence of feedback onto conflict', Global Environmental Change. Available online here |
 | What are the events that shake our world? Measuring and hedging global COVAL Engle, R.F. & Campos-Martins, S. (2022) 'What are the events that shake our world? Measuring and hedging global COVOL', Journal of Financial Economics. Available online here |
 | Machine learning dynamic switching approach to forecasting in the presence of structural breaks Marcondes Pinto, J. and Castle, J.L. (2022) 'Machine learning dynamic switiching approach to forecasting in the presence of structural breaks', Journal of Business Cycle Research. Available online here |
 | Extreme weather and climate policy Rowan, S. (2022) 'Extreme weather and climate policy', Environmental Politics. Available online here |
 | Financial market linkages and the sovereign debt crisis Campos-Martins, S. and Amado, C. (2022) 'Financial market linkages and the sovereign debt crisis', Journal of International Money and Finance . Available online here |
 | Political strategies to overcome climate policy obstructionism Srivastav, S. & Rafaty, R. (2022) 'Political strategies to overcome climate policy obstructionism', Perspectives on Politics. Available online here |
 | Attributing agnostically detected large reductions in road CO2 emissions to policy mixes Koch, N., Naumann, L., Pretis, F., Ritter, N., & Schwarz, M. (2022) 'Attributing agnostically detected large reductions in road CO2 emissions to policy mixes', Nature Energy. Available online here |
 | Allocation, allocation, allocation! The political economy of the development of the European Union Emissions Trading System Sato, M., Rafaty, R., Calel, R., & Grubb, M. (2022) 'Allocation, allocation, allocation! The political economy of the development of the European Union Emissions Trading System', WIREs Climate Change. Available online here |
 | Whose jobs face transition risk in Alberta? Understanding sectoral employment precarity in an oil-rich Canadian province Scheer, A., Schwarz, M., Hopkins, D. & Caldecott, B. (2022) 'Whose jobs face transition risk in Alberta? Understanding sectoral employment precarity in an oil-rich Canadian province', Climate Policy. Available online here |
| Testing the presence of outliers in regression models Jiao, X. & Pretis, F. (2022) 'Testing the presence of outliers in regression models', Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. Available online here |
 | A globally consistent local-scale assessment of future tropical cyclone risk Bloemendaal, N., De Moel, H., Martinez, A.B., Muis, S., Haigh, I.D., Van der Wiel, K., Haarsma, R.J., Ward, P.J., Roberts, M.J., Dullaart, J.C.M, & Aerts, J.C.J.H. (2022) 'A globally consistent local-scale assessment of future tropical cyclone risk', Science Advances, 8(17). Available online here |
 | The role of anticipatory humanitarian action to reduce disaster displacement Thalheimer, L., Simperingham, E. & Jjemba, E.W. (2022) 'The role of anticipatory humanitarian action to reduce disaster displacement', Environmental Research Letters, 17. Available online here |
 | Decarbonization in state-owned power companies: Lessons from a comparative analysis Benoit, P., Clark, A., Schwarz, M., & Dibley, A. (2022) 'Decarbonization in state-owned power companies: Lessons from a comparative analysis', Journal of Cleaner Production. Available online here |
 | Does a carbon tax reduce CO2 emissions? Evidence from British Columbia Pretis, F. (2022) 'Does a carbon tax reduce CO2 emissions? Evidence from British Columbia, Environmental and Resource Economics. Available online here |
 | Analysing differences between scenarios Hendry, D.F. & Pretis, F. (2022) "Analysing differences between scenarios" International Journal of Forecasting. Available online here |
 | Econometrics for Modelling Climate Change Castle, J.L. & Hendry, D.F. (2022) "Econometrics for Modelling Climate Change" Oxford Research Encyclopedias, Economics and Finance. Available online here |
 | Sensitive intervention points in China's coal phaseout Heerma van Voss, B. & Rafaty, R. (2022) "Sensitive intervention points in China's coal phaseout" Energy Policy, 163. Available online here |
 | Smooth robust multi-horizon forecasts Martinez, A.B., Castle, J.L., & Hendry, D.F. (2022) 'Smooth robust multi-horizon forecasts', Chudik, A., Hsiao, C., & Timmermann, A. (Ed.) Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modeling (Advances in Econometrics, Vol. 43A), Emerald Publishing Limited, Bingley, pp. 143-165. Available online here |
| Forecasting: theory and practice Petropoulos, F. et al (2022) 'Forecasting: theory and practice', International Journal of Forecasting. Available online here |
 | Forecasting facing economic shifts, climate change and evolving pandemics Castle, J.L., Doornik, J.A. & Hendry, D.F. (2021) 'Forecasting facing economic shifts, climate change and evolving pandemics' Econometrics 10: 2. Available online here |
 | Modeling and forecasting the COVID-19 pandemic time-series data Doornik, J.A., Castle, J.L. and Hendry, D.F. (2021) 'Modeling and forecasting the COVID-19 pandemic time-series data', Social Science Quarterly. Available online here |
 | Deciphering Impacts and Human Responses to a Changing Climate in East Africa Thalheimer, L., Otto, F. and Abele S. (2021) "Deciphering Impacts and Human Responses to a Changing Climate in East Africa", Frontiers in Climate. Available online here |
 | Oxford's Contributions to Econometrics Hendry, D.F. & Nielsen, B. (2021) "Oxford's Contributions to Econometrics", The Palgrave Companion to Oxford Economics. Available online here |
 | Selecting a model for forecasting Castle, J.L., Doornik, J.A., & Hendry, D.F. (2021) "Selecting a model for forecasting", Econometrics, 9(3). Open Access. Available online here |
| The value of robust statistical forecasts in the Covid-19 pandemic Castle, J.L., Doornik, J.A., & Hendry, D.F. (2021) "The value of robust statistical forecasts in the Covid-19 pandemic", National Institute Economic Review. Open Access. Available online here |
 | Robust discovery of regression models Castle, J.L., Doornik, J.A. & Hendry, D.F. (2021) "Robust discovery of regression models", Econometrics and Statistics. Open Access. Available online here |
 | A dynamic econometric analysis of the dollar-pound exchange rate in an era of structural breaks and policy regime shifts Castle, J.L. & Kurita, T. (2021) 'A dynamic econometric analysis of the dollar-pound exchange rate in an era of structural breaks and policy regime shifts', Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. Available online here |
 | Does institutional proliferation undermine cooperation? Theory and evidence from climate change Rowan, S.S. (2021) 'Does institutional proliferation undermine cooperation? Theory and evidence from climate change', International Studies Quarterly. Available online here |
 | Forecasting Principles from Experience with Forecasting Competitions Castle, J.L., Doornik, J.A., & Hendry, D.F. (2021) "Forecasting Principles from Experience with Forecasting Competitions", Forecasting (Special Issue), 3(1), 138-165. Available online here |
| Exogeneity in climate econometrics Pretis, F. (2021). "Exogeneity in climate econometrics" Energy Economics. Available online here |
 | Feedbacks among electric vehicle adoption, charging, and the cost and installation of rooftop solar photovoltaics Kafmann, R.K., Newberry, D., Xin, C. & Gopal, S. (2021). "Feedbacks among electric vehicle adoption, charging, and the cost of installation of rooftop solar photovoltaics" Nature Energy. Available online here |
 | Climate Economics Support for the UN Climate Targets Hänsel, M.C., Drupp, M.A., Johansson, D.J.A., Nesje, F., Azar, C., Freeman, M.C., Groom, B., & Sterner, T. (2020) "Climate Economics Support for the UN Climate Targets" Nature Climate Change, 10, 781-789. Available online here. |
| Refunding emission payments: Output-based versus expenditure-based refunding Hagem, C., Hoel, M., & Sterner, T. (2020) "Refunding emission payments: Output-based versus expenditure-based refunding", Environmental and Resource Economics, 77, 641-667. Available online here |
 | Global mean thermosteric sea level projections by 2100 in CMIP6 climate models Jevrejeva, S., Palanisamy, H. & Jackson, L.P. (2020) "Global mean thermosteric sea level projections by 2100 in CMIP6 climate models" Environmental Research Letters. Available online here |
 | Understanding glacial cycles: A multivariate disequilibrium approach Kaufmann, R. and Pretis, F. (2020) "Understanding glacial cycles: A multivariate disequilibrium approach" Quaternary Science Reviews. Available online here |
 | Statistical Short-term Forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic Doornik, J.A., Hendry, D.F. & Castle, J.L. (2020) "Statistical Short-term Forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic" Journal of Clinical Immunology & Immunotherapy. Available online here |
| How urbanization enhanced exposure to climate risks in the Pacific: A case study in the Republic of Palau Mason, D.L., Iida, A., Watanabe, S., Jackson, L.P., Yokohari, M. (2020). "How urbanization enhanced exposure to climate risks in the Pacific: A case study in the Republic of Palau"Environmental Research Letters. Available online here |
| Modelling non-stationary 'Big Data' Castle, J.L., Doornik, J.A. & Hendry, D.F. (2020). "Modelling non-stationary 'Big Data', International Journal of Forecasting. Available online here |
 | Can the UK achieve net-zero emissions in a post-Covid-19 economic recovery? Castle, J.L. and Hendry, D.F. (2020) 'Can the UK achieve net-zero emissions in a post-Covid-19 economic recovery', Economics Observatory. Available online here |
| Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic Doornik, J.A., Castle, J. L. & Hendry, D.F. (2020) "Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic", International Journal of Forecasting. Available online here |
| The Challenge of Using Epidemiological Case Count Data: The Example of Confirmed COVID-19 Cases and the Weather Cohen, F., Schwarz, M., Li, S., Lu, Y. Jani, A. (2020). "The Challenge of Using Epidemiological Case Count Data: The Example of Confirmed COVID-19 Cases and the Weather", Environmental and and Resource Economics: Perspectives on the Economics of the Environment in the Shadow of Coronavirus, 76, 447-517. Available online here |
 | Climate Econometrics: An Overview Castle, J.L. & Hendry, D.F. (2020) "Climate Econometrics: An Overview", Foundations and Trends in Econometrics, 10(3-4), 145-322. Available here (Final proof copy) |
 | Comparing urban coastal flood risk in 136 cities under two alternative sea-level projections: RCP 8.5 and an expert opinion-based high-end scenario Abadie, L.M., Jackson, L.P., Sainz de Murieta, E., Jevrejeva, S., and Galarraga, I. "Comparing urban coastal flood risk in 136 cities under two alternative sea-level projections: RCP 8.5 and an expert opinion-based high-end scenario"Ocean and Coastal Management, 193. Available online here |
 | Improving Normalized Hurricane Damages Martinez, A.B. (2020) "Improving Normalized Hurricane Damages", Nature Sustainability, 3, 517-518. Available online here |
 | A Short History of Macro-econometric Modelling Hendry, D.F. (2020) "A Short History of Macro-Econometric Modelling", Journal of Banking, Finance and Sustainable Development, 1(1). |
| Decarbonising the future UK economy Hendry, D.F. and Castle, J.C. (2020) VoxEU. Available online here |
| Forecast accuracy matters for hurricane damage Martinez, A.B. (2020) Econometrics. Available online here |
 | Climate change, conflicts and migration Thaliheimer, L. and Webersik, C. (2020) "Climate change, conflicts and migration" in Environmental Conflicts, Migration and Governance, Tim Krieger, Diana Panke and Michael Pregernig (eds). Bristol University Press. Available to purchase online here |
 | Technology transfer and innovation for low-carbon development Pigato, M.A., Black, S.J., Dussaux, D., Mao, Z., McKenna, M., Rafaty, R. and Touboul, S. (2020) World Bank. Available online here |
 | Revoking coal mining permits: an economic and legal analysis Rafaty, R., Srivastav, S. & Hoops, B. (2020) Climate Policy. Available online here |
| The Paradox of Stagnant Real Wages yet Rising 'Living Standards' in the UK Castle, J.L., Hendry, D.F., & Martinez, A.B. (2020). VoxEU Available online here |
 | The Picture from Above: Using Satellite Imagery to Overcome Methodological Challenges in Studying Environmental Displacement Heslin, A. and Thalheimer, L. (2020). Oxford Monitor of Forced Migration. Available online here |
| Annals Issue: Econometric Models of Climate Change Edited by Eric Hillebrand, Felix Pretis and Tommaso Proietti (2020) "Econometric Models of Climate Change"Journal of Econometrics, 214(1), 1-294. Available online here |
 | Modelling our Changing World Castle, J.L. and Hendry, D.F. (2019). Palgrave. Open Access. Available online here |
 | Variation in responsiveness to warranted behaviour change among NHS clinicians: Novel implementation of change detection methods in longitudinal prescribing data. Walker, A.J., Pretis, F., Powell-Smith, A., and Goldacre, B. (2019). The British Medical Journal. Available online here |
 | Pitfalls in Comparing Paris Pledges Rowan, Sam (2019), Climatic Change Open Access. Available online here. |
 | Probabilistic Sea Level Projections at the Coast by 2100 S. Jevrejeva, T. Frederikse, R.E. Kopp, G. Le Cozannet, L.P. Jackson, R.S.W. van de Wal. 2019. Surveys in Geophysics. doi: 10.1007/s10712-019-09550-y. Available online here |
 | Forecasting: An Essential Introduction Jennifer L. Castle, Michael P. Clements, and David F. Hendry 2019, Yale University Press, Open Access. Available online here |
| Econometric Modelling of Climate Systems: The Equivalence of Energy Balance Models and Cointegrated Vector Autoregressions. Felix Pretis, May 27, 2019. Journal of Econometrics. Available online here |
| Card Forecasts for M4. Jurgen A. Doornik, Jennifer L. Castle, and David F. Hendry. 31 May 2019. International Journal of Forecasting. Available Online here |
 | Sensitive Intervention Points in the Post-Carbon Transition J.D. Farmer, C. Hepburn, M.C. Ives, T. Hale, T. Wetzer, P. Mealy, R. Rafaty, S. Srivastav, R. Way. 12 April 2019, Science, Volume 364, Issue 6436. Available online here. |
 | Coastal Sea level rise around the China Seas Qu, Y., Jevrejeva, S., Jackson, L.P., & Moore, J.C. 2018, Global and Planetary Change, 127, 454-463, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2018.11.005. Available online here. |
 | Automated General-to-Specific (GETS) Regression Modeling and Indicator Saturation for Outliers and Structural Breaks Pretis, F., Reade, J.J., Sucarrat, G. 2018. Journal of Statistical Software, 86(4). [10.18637/jss.v086.i03] R-package `gets' available here. |
| Flood damage costs under the sea level rise with warming of 1.5°C and 2°C Jevrejeva, S, Jackson, L.P., Grinstead, A., Lincke, D., and Marzeion, B., 2018. Environmental Research Letters, 13 (7). Available online here |
 | "Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard" Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Evangelos Voukouvalas, Martin Verlaan, Svetlana Jevrejeva, Luke P. Jackson & Luc Feyen , 2018. Nature Communications. [DOI 10.1038/s41467-018-04692-w] |
 | "Uncertain impacts on economic growth when stabilizing global temperatures at 1.5°C or 2°C warming" Pretis, Felix, Moritz Schwarz, Kevin Tang, Karsten Haustein, and Myles R Allen, 2018. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A. [DOI 10.1098/rsta.2016.0460] Non-technical summary and impact data here. |
 | "21st century sea-level rise in line with the Paris accord" Luke P. Jackson, Aslak Grinsted, Svetlana Jevrejeva (2018). [ Pre-print accepted version available here] Earth's Future. DOI 10.1002/2017EF000688. |
 | An independent record of large volcanic events over the past millennium from reconstructed summer temperatures Schneider, Lea. Smerdon, E, Jason. Pretis, Felix. Hartl-Meier, Claudia. and Jan Esper, 2017. Environmental Research Letters. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa7a1b. Oxford Martin School news on the paper. |
 | Carbon Dioxide Emission-Intensity in Climate Projections: Comparing the Observational Record to Socio-Economic Scenarios Pretis, Felix, and Roser, Max, 2017, Energy, in press. doi: 10.1016/j.energy.2017.06.119 Available online here. Earlier version also available as Oxford Economics Discussion Paper, 810, here. Oxford University Science Blog on the paper: here. |
| Evaluating multi-step system forecasts with relatively few forecast-error observations Hendry, David, F. and Martinez, Andrew, B. (2017) International Journal of Forecasting. Available online here. |
 | Spatial heterogeneity of climate change as an experiential basis for skepticism Robert K. Kaufmann, Michael L. Mann, Sucharita Gopal, Jackie A. Liederman, Peter D. Howe, Felix Pretis, Xiaojing Tang, and Michelle Gilmore (2016) Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Available online here. Oxford Martin School News on the study here. |
 | All Change! The Implications of Non-stationarity for Empirical Modelling, Forecasting and Policy David F. Hendry and Felix Pretis (2016), Oxford Martin Policy Paper. Available online here. |
 | Coastal sea level rise with warming above 2 °C Svetlana Jevrejeva, Luke P. Jackson, Riccardo E. M. Riva, Aslak Grinsted, and John C. Moore (2016), Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1605312113 Available online here. The Conversation article on the research here. |
 | A probabilistic approach to 21st century regional sea-level projections using RCP and high-end scenarios. Luke P. Jackson and Svetlana Jevrejeva. (2016), Global and Planetary Change. doi: 10.1111/joes.12148 Available online here. |
 | Detecting Volcanic Eruptions in Temperature Reconstructions by Designed Break-Indicator Saturation. Pretis, Felix., Schneider, Lea., Smerdon, Jason, E., and Hendry, David, F. (2016), Journal of Economic Surveys. doi: 10.1111/joes.12148 Available online here. Working paper version available here. |
 | Testing competing forms of the Milankovitch hypothesis: A multivariate approach. Kaufmann, Robert K., and Katarina Juselius (2016), Paleoceanography. doi: 10.1002/2014PA002767 Available online here. |
 | Reflections – Managing Uncertain Climates: Some Guidance for Policy Makers and Researchers. Convery, Frank J. and Gernot Wagner, (2015), Review of Environmental Economics and Policy 9 (2): 304-320. Available online here. |
 | Testing Competing Models of the Temperature Hiatus: Assessing the effects of conditioning variables and temporal uncertainties through sample-wide break detection Pretis, Felix, and Mann, Michael, L. and Kaufmann, Robert K., 2015, Climatic Change, 131:4, 705-718, doi: 10.1007/s10584-015-1391-5. Available online here. |
 | Detecting Location Shifts during Model Selection by Step-Indicator Saturation Castle Jennifer, L. Hendry, David F. Doornik, Jurgen. A., and Felix Pretis. 2015, Econometrics, 3, 240-264, doi:10.3390/econometrics03020240. Available online here. Code for indicator saturation: isat in gets (in R), and SIS in Ox. |
 | Climate Science: Breaks in Trends Pretis, Felix and Myles R. Allen. 2013, Nature Geoscience, 6, 992-993, doi:10.1038/ngeo2015. Available online here. |
 | Some hazards in econometric modelling of climate change Pretis, Felix, and David F. Hendry. 2013, Earth System Dynamics, 4, 375-384, doi:10.5194/esd-4-375-2013. Available online here. |
 | Anthropogenic Influences on Atmospheric CO2 Hendry, David F., and Felix Pretis. 2013, Handbook on Energy and Climate Change. Ch. 12. R. Fouquet ed. Edward Elgar. Available online here. |